The Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering – Politecnico di Milano is at the forefront of the development of FluWarning, the new digital system created together with the University of Milan to monitor in real time the changes in influenza viruses that can mark the jump from one animal species to another, the so-called spillover.
The system analyses the viral genetic code to identify even small but significant variations. Using a statistical method, it learns which viral sequences are typical and generates alerts when it detects notable deviations. Each alert is reviewed by virologists, who confirm or rule out the possibility of a species jump.
The software was validated on data from the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic and subsequently applied to H5N1 avian influenza. During 2024–2025, it successfully detected clusters of H5N1 in the United States, with a significant focus on California, where a state of emergency was declared due to the risk of livestock contamination.
This study, published in Science Advances, forms part of the SENSIBLE project funded by PRIN PNRR 2022 and coordinated by Anna Bernasconi. Politecnico research team comprises Bernasconi, Prof. Stefano Ceri, and researcher Tommaso Alfonsi, in collaboration with Matteo Chiara from the University of Milan.
Thanks to its straightforward installation process and the ability to perform targeted analyses across specific locations and time periods, the FluWarning software holds substantial promise for widespread adoption by laboratories and genomic surveillance institutions at the regional level. This capability facilitates significant discoveries at both micro and macro scales. The system is fully operational and capable of delivering timely, day-to-day feedback on epidemiological changes.
FluWarning represents an important step towards more effective surveillance of influenza viruses, with the goal of protecting animals and people and strengthening prevention on a global scale.