Political instability could hinder the development of cross-border electricity trade in Africa in the coming years. This is the focus of a study published in Nature Communications, which examines the role of socio-political risk in planning a more sustainable and interconnected African energy system.
The article, Near-term increased exposure to political risk for African power trades, was authored by Teresa Bonserio, Angelo Carlino, Matteo Giuliani and Andrea Castelletti from the Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering at Politecnico di Milano, in collaboration with the Euro Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change and the Stanford Carnegie Institution for Science.
Electricity trade between countries is a key component of Africa’s energy transition: it can support the sharing of renewable resources, strengthen security of supply and reduce overall system costs. However, long-term planning studies often focus on technical and economic aspects, overlooking the impact that political dynamics can have on international cooperation.
The study examines six cost-optimal strategies for the development of the African power system, assessing how future trade flows may be exposed to socio-political instability. The findings identify the first half of the 2020–2030 decade as the most critical period, with areas of particularly high risk in Western, Southern and Central-Eastern Africa.
The analysis also shows that the distribution of risk varies across the socio-demographic, climate and hydrological scenarios considered, as individual countries respond differently to ongoing change. Integrating political risk into energy planning is therefore essential to design cross-border electricity networks that are more flexible, resilient and responsive to the specific characteristics of different contexts.