A study conducted by Amruta Umakant Mahakalkar, Enrico Caiani, and Lorenzo Gianquintieri from the Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering – Politecnico di Milano, and published in the international journal Global Challenges, highlighted a significant correlation between peaks in air pollution and the risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Lombardy.
The analysis considered 37,613 cases recorded between 2016 and 2019, integrating clinical data with daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, NO₂, O₃, and CO), obtained from satellite observations from the European Space Agency (ESA) Copernicus program. The use of advanced spatiotemporal statistical models allowed for the accurate identification of associations between smog episodes and increased cardiac risk.
For every 10 micrograms per cubic meter increase in nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), the risk of cardiac arrest increases by 7% over the next 96 hours. A significant association was also observed for PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ particulate matter, with increases in risk of 3% and 2.5%, respectively, already on the day of exposure.
The effect is more evident in urban areas, but significant correlations are also observed in small towns, especially during the warmer months. The risk emerges even at values below regulatory limits, indicating the absence of a safe exposure threshold.
The link between air quality and out-of-hospital cardiac arrests represents a useful indicator for managing emergency services. During periods of high pollution, health services may face an increase in requests for intervention.
The findings strengthen the scientific evidence linking air pollution to cardiovascular health, confirming the impact of this environmental factor even in the short term.
The study is part of a broader line of research aimed at integrating environmental data into healthcare forecasting systems. In line with these objectives, the CLIMA-CARE project, funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), begins today. The project is dedicated to analyzing the impact of climate and environmental conditions on emergency medical services in Lombardy, including through future climate projections.
Coordinated by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and with the participation of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Group on Earth Observation (GEO), the Department of Electronic, Information and Bioengineering is committed to developing models and tools for preventive risk assessment.