Monday, January 19, 2026 | 11:00 AM
Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering - Politecnico di Milano
Alessandra Alario Seminar Room (Building 21)
Speaker: Danila Volpi (European Commission Joint Research Center)
Contacts: phd-step@polimi.it
Abstract
Droughts are complex natural hazards with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems, food security, and socio-economic stability. As climate change alters the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of drought events, a critical question arises regarding how drought hazards evolve under extreme scenarios, such as the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Given that the AMOC modulates precipitation regimes across the Northern Hemisphere and is projected to weaken by the end of this century across all IPCC AR6 scenarios, its anthropogenic decline could significantly alter future drought dynamics.To address this, we examine four sets of paired climate model simulations comparing weakened AMOC states against stable control runs with stronger AMOC. Three of these experiment pairs employ the EC-EARTH3.3 model, where freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic induce an artificial AMOC slowdown under fixed pre-industrial, present-day (2025), and future (2050, SSP5-8.5) forcing. The fourth pair employs the NASA GISS ModelE, which simulates a spontaneous AMOC collapse under an extended SSP2-4.5 scenario without external freshwater forcing. By applying an advanced Meteorological Drought Tracking approach based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), we quantify shifts in drought duration, severity, and spatial coherence. Our findings confirm the key role of large-scale ocean circulation in modulating climate extremes and drought-related risks.
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