HIL Seminar
Flash Floods: Challanges of nowcasting using ensemble approaches
Maria-Helena Ramos
Research Scientist in hydrology and hydrometeorology
(IRSTEA) - France
DEIB - Alario Seminar Room (building 21)
December 3rd, 2018
2.30 pm
Contacts:
Andrea Castelletti
Research Line:
Planning and management of environmental systems
Maria-Helena Ramos
Research Scientist in hydrology and hydrometeorology
(IRSTEA) - France
DEIB - Alario Seminar Room (building 21)
December 3rd, 2018
2.30 pm
Contacts:
Andrea Castelletti
Research Line:
Planning and management of environmental systems
Sommario
On December 3rd, 2018 at 2.30 pm, Dr. Maria-Helena Ramos will be giving a lecture on “Flash Floods: Challanges of nowcasting using ensemble approaches” in DEIB Alario Room (building 21), as new appointment of HIL Seminars.
Among the different types of floods, flash floods can be particularly dangerous, notably due to specific challenges forecasters and risk managers face when dealing with this type of event: rapid rising of river water levels, short lead time to activate flood alert and social response, difficulties in forecasting localised and intense precipitation events, as well as the lack of quantitative data to improve the understanding and modelling of flash floods. The setup of flood alert systems for nowcasting usually focuses on capturing in advance a signal of an upcoming extreme event to generate short-range (0–6h ahead) forecasts and produce flash flood guidance and flood alert maps. This is usually based on the extrapolation in time of observed weather radar images or the use of high resolution numerical weather model outputs (or a combination of both). In this presentation, we discuss the use of ensemble approaches to quantify uncertainties in flash flood nowcasting systems and provide probabilistic information for flood alert at very short lead times. We present a brief review of existing approaches and illustrate the challenges ahead with recent work carried out in France for ensemble nowcasting of flash floods at gauged and ungauged catchments.
Among the different types of floods, flash floods can be particularly dangerous, notably due to specific challenges forecasters and risk managers face when dealing with this type of event: rapid rising of river water levels, short lead time to activate flood alert and social response, difficulties in forecasting localised and intense precipitation events, as well as the lack of quantitative data to improve the understanding and modelling of flash floods. The setup of flood alert systems for nowcasting usually focuses on capturing in advance a signal of an upcoming extreme event to generate short-range (0–6h ahead) forecasts and produce flash flood guidance and flood alert maps. This is usually based on the extrapolation in time of observed weather radar images or the use of high resolution numerical weather model outputs (or a combination of both). In this presentation, we discuss the use of ensemble approaches to quantify uncertainties in flash flood nowcasting systems and provide probabilistic information for flood alert at very short lead times. We present a brief review of existing approaches and illustrate the challenges ahead with recent work carried out in France for ensemble nowcasting of flash floods at gauged and ungauged catchments.
Biografia
Maria-Helena Ramos is a Research Scientist in hydrology and hydrometeorology at the National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture (IRSTEA) in France. She is also occasional lecturer at Sorbonne Université, Polytech Paris-UPMC and EIVP Engineering school in Paris. She has participated to several national and European research and innovation projects, published over 100 scientific papers and reports, organized training courses on flood forecasting and uncertainty to post-graduate students and professionals, as well as co-authored several games for teaching and training on the use of probabilistic predictions in hydrology. Dr. Ramos was co-chair of the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) from 2014 to 2018, and is currently president-elected of the Division on Hydrological Sciences of the European Geosciences Union (EGU), starting her 2-year term as division president in April 2019.