Reassessment and new projections of Haiti cholera outbreak

In cooperation with researchers at EPFL (Lausanne, CH), Princeton University (Princeton, USA) and Harvard University (Cambridge, USA), the Ecology Group of DEI has developed new models for the cholera epidemic that has struck Haiti since the Fall of 2010. The results have been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. The models account for the hydrological and mobility networks as well as for the loss of immunity that can occur during extended outbreaks and the temporal distribution of rainfall. This latter can be an important driver of disease reinsurgence. Based on the analysis of past data, the researchers have made projections of future cholera evolution up to the end of 2013 and discussed possible intervention strategies.

A. Rinaldo, E.Bertuzzo, L. Mari, L. Righetto, M. Blokesch, M. Gatto, R. Casagrandi, M. Murray, S. Vesenbeckh, and I.Rodriguez-Iturbe, 2012. Reassessment of the 2010-2011 Haiti cholera outbreak and rainfall-driven multi-season projections, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencese USA, April 13, 2012.